The overall production capacity of the lithium battery industry chain continued to grow in July.

According to comprehensive market data, domestic battery production exceeded 130GWh in July, a year-on-year increase of nearly 40%; The negative electrode, separator, and electrolyte in the material section have all achieved a month on month increase of about 2%, while the positive electrode material has declined.

In terms of new energy vehicles, the acceleration of the electrification process of domestic commercial vehicles contributes to the core increment. In the first quarter of 2025, the sales volume of new energy heavy-duty trucks in China continued to grow rapidly, achieving a sales volume of 30000 units, a year-on-year increase of 176%, and a market penetration rate of 11.51%. GGII predicts that the sales volume of new energy heavy-duty trucks in China is expected to reach 160000 units by 2025, nearly doubling year-on-year.

The mid year promotion in the passenger car market provides support for the growth of various brands in June. According to GGII's analysis of the newly released sales data of some car companies' new energy vehicles in June, Zero Run Motors continues to lead the new forces, and Xiaopeng Motors' year-on-year growth rate continues to remain more than twice.

In terms of energy storage market, the reduction of US tariffs triggered the "export rush" effect, and China's energy storage battery cell exports are expected to increase by over 25 Wh in July, with a month on month growth rate of 10%. The surge in orders for energy storage projects in the Middle East, coupled with the completion of European household storage destocking and the increase in industrial and commercial storage capacity, has led to multiple global energy storage demands.

The positive trend in production scheduling also indicates that we are currently at the bottom of the cycle, and the positive signal for future demand recovery is becoming increasingly clear.

At the 18th Gaogong Lithium Battery Industry Summit at the end of June, Dr. Zhang Xiaofei, Chairman of Gaogong Lithium Battery, pointed out that lithium battery technology is undergoing a transformation from "internal performance parameters" to "structural breakthroughs". From 10C fast charging, short blade, large cylinder, to solid-state batteries and zero attenuation energy storage, the industry is no longer solely pursuing extreme values, but returning to the overall value loop of "technology+application".

Based on the operation of lithium battery enterprises, the demand for fast charging in the power sector is driving the growth of demand for new materials such as high-voltage positive electrodes and fast charging negative electrodes; The export of energy storage is shifting towards high-end, and the proportion of 314Ah large battery cells continues to increase. Overall, there is a clear signal of upgrading and iterating power/energy storage battery technology.

After the pressure of "increasing quantity and decreasing price" in the past two years, the material process is entering the "Spring River Water Warmth" period. Starting from the second half of 2024, the prices and processing fees of lithium battery materials will gradually hit bottom; Starting from 2025, multiple processes such as negative electrodes, lithium iron phosphate positive electrodes, electrolytes, and separators will usher in a new round of production expansion; From 2026 to 2029, the expansion relay of lithium mines, lithium salts, lithium batteries and other links will keep up, forming a rhythm of expanding the entire material chain; The overall presentation shows a rhythm of "starting locally first, then advancing globally".

However, at the same time, the concentration of industries has significantly increased, and a wave of integration of "big fish eating small fish" has emerged, with profits and discourse power gathering at the top.

Especially solid-state batteries are releasing industrialization signals, and the first round of concentrated production capacity may be introduced in 2025. Dr. Zhang Xiaofei pointed out that 2025 to 2026 will be the intensive release window for solid-state battery production capacity construction; In the first four months of 2025 alone, the newly expanded production scale will exceed 50 GWh, with an investment of over 20 billion yuan; Although the effective production capacity is still limited, six companies have built production lines exceeding 1.5 GWh; The energy storage scenario will prioritize the release of production capacity, especially in semi-solid and LFP systems where it is first implemented.