Recently, several major domestic battery companies have released their first quarter performance reports.

Ningde Times' Q1 2025 operating revenue was 84.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.18%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 14 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.85%.

Yiwei Lithium Energy's Q1 2025 operating revenue was 12.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37.34%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.32%.

Guoxuan High Tech's Q1 2025 operating revenue was 9.06 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.61%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 100 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 45.55%.

Overall, the three major battery companies mentioned above achieved positive growth in revenue and net profit in the first quarter. Ningde Times' revenue growth rate slowed down, but its net profit growth performance was outstanding; Yiwei Lithium Energy's net profit performance is stable, and its revenue growth rate is fast; Guoxuan High tech has experienced rapid growth in both revenue and net profit.

This actually demonstrates the market strategies of different battery companies, such as CATL, which has maintained a highly stable overall market share and increased its profit level by increasing the proportion of high-end product shipments; After relatively stable market positions, EVE Energy and Guoxuan High Tech actively explore new market areas to further enhance their market size.

The overall stability demonstrated by major domestic battery companies in the first quarter, as well as exceeding expectations in terms of profits or revenue, is due to the effective adjustment of the industry cycle in the past two years. On the other hand, the domestic new energy vehicle market continued to maintain stable and high growth in the first quarter of this year, driving the increase in battery installation capacity.

According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the sales of new energy vehicles increased by 47.1% in the first quarter of this year, especially for pure electric vehicles, which increased by 47.7% year-on-year. As the main installed capacity, the growth rate of pure electric vehicles has a particularly significant impact on the installed capacity. The electrification of commercial vehicles has also significantly boosted the performance of battery companies in the first quarter. According to market data, the installed capacity growth rate of commercial vehicles in the first quarter of this year has nearly doubled.

Benefiting from the growth of the terminal market, multiple battery companies have also stated that their capacity utilization rates have gradually increased since the first quarter, and orders were full in the second quarter.

In addition to revenue performance, inventory and accounting period indicators also reflect the operating conditions of battery companies. From these indicators, how can battery companies predict the market situation in the second quarter?

Inventory levels rise: Market expectations improve in Q2

Inventory data intuitively reflects a company's assessment of the market outlook.

Generally speaking, if downstream demand growth slows down or industry chain prices continue to decline, companies will reduce inventory to avoid profit losses caused by inventory impairment.

Based on the data from the first quarter of this year, the inventory data of major domestic battery companies has reached a new high. The inventory amount of Ningde Times in the first quarter report reached 65.64 billion yuan. This level is not only significantly higher than the 43.98 billion yuan in the same period last year, but even higher than the stocking level during last year's peak season. Considering the decline in material and battery prices over the past year, CATL's inventory level in the first quarter exceeded expectations.

Except for CATL, other battery companies such as EVE Energy, Nandu Power, Lingpai Technology, and Paineng Technology have all seen a month on month increase in inventory levels in the first quarter of this year.

The inventory level of battery companies in the first quarter often corresponds to the expected orders in the second quarter. At present, the off-season of the power battery market in the first quarter is not weak, and the rapid growth of installed capacity data further boosts the market confidence of battery companies in the second quarter. CATL also recently stated that its sales in the first quarter increased rapidly year-on-year, with monthly and quarterly shipments showing rolling growth.

In terms of payment terms, the accounts receivable and payable of most enterprises have shown relatively stable growth, reflecting the stable growth of procurement and orders in the upstream and downstream of the battery industry chain. According to research conducted by Gaogong Lithium Battery, most companies have reported a significant rebound in market performance in the first quarter of this year compared to last year, with high certainty in growth expectations.

What is the price trend of the industrial chain?

The price of the industrial chain often directly affects the procurement expectations of the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain, as well as the costs and profits of battery companies. So, what is the price trend of the industrial chain in the second quarter?

At present, the expected impact of external tariff shocks on industrial chain prices is significant. According to the previous analysis of Gaogong Lithium Battery, due to Trump's tariff policy, upstream and downstream materials and batteries have been affected to a certain extent, which may further put pressure on domestic industry chain prices in the case of export to domestic sales.

According to the tracking of Gaogong Lithium Battery, at the beginning of the second quarter, the overall price of the industrial chain slightly declined. At the same time, in the second quarter, the marketing campaign of car companies has strengthened, and the increase in downstream bidding pressure has also put some pressure on upstream material prices.

From the past perspective, there is a significant room for game in the prices of the industrial chain in the first and second quarters, coupled with Trump's fickleness in tariff issues, it is expected that the prices of the industrial chain in the second quarter will have some volatility.
The fluctuation of industry chain prices can also affect the cost of batteries to a certain extent, thereby affecting the profits of battery companies.

However, the possibility of significant fluctuations in industry chain prices is relatively small, mainly due to market environment and the profit demand of enterprises.

On the one hand, the situation of oversupply of upstream materials is gradually easing, and although there is new production capacity, the supply level has not significantly increased.

On the other hand, in recent years, the problem of overcapacity in the upstream has relied more on material companies bidding, sacrificing profits to reach settlements. After two years of negotiations to raise and lower prices, the consensus between upstream and downstream on reasonable profits has gradually been reached. Unless material costs fluctuate significantly and industry chain prices fluctuate greatly, it is difficult to occur.

In contrast, the expected growth rate of downstream demand is becoming increasingly clear, coupled with the emergence of new tracks such as data centers, low altitude economy, humanoid robots, and commercial vehicles, the demand for lithium batteries is expected to continue to maintain a stable medium to high growth rate.

In the short term, it is expected that the prices of the industrial chain will fluctuate to a certain extent, and lithium battery companies need to pay more attention to strengthening inventory management.